Analysts: Military now in rare, uncomfortable role of running Egypt

(CNN) -- With President Hosni Mubarak ousted and the armed forces now running the country, the military went past the point of no return Friday and took center stage in the Egyptian revolution, assuming a high role of accountability and risk it traditionally shuns, analysts said.

Expanding protests nationwide, demonstrations outside the presidential palace, rebellion within state-controlled media, resignations of parliament members -- all these factors the past 18 days doomed Mubarak, analysts said.

"The state was really beginning to disintegrate," said Egypt analyst Michele Dunne, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "The military really had to wonder if they were going to lose control if they didn't act."

Mubarak, the supreme commander of the military and president for almost 30 years, had become expendable.

"He actually became more than expendable. He became someone who was bringing down the whole system," said James Gelvin, history professor at the University of California at Los Angeles and Middle East expert.

The military takeover came a day after Mubarak announced he was delegating power to his hand-picked vice president, Omar Suleiman, in a gesture to appease protesters. But that only enraged demonstrators Thursday who wanted nothing less than Mubarak's outright ouster.

Earlier Thursday, protesters and others had expected Mubarak would completely leave Egypt partly because the military's senior officers issued "Communique No. 1" as if they were in charge of the country, analysts said.

"There's clearly a complicated behind-the-scenes story that we may never get the details of," Nathan Brown, professor of Middle Eastern politics at George Washington University, said Friday. "Yesterday, clearly they were in disarray and confusion."

For now, the person apparently in charge of Egypt is Defense Minister Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, 75, who also heads the military's Supreme Council and has combat experience in three wars, analysts said.

Tantawi is technically the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, whereas the president is "supreme commander."

Tantawi, however, has a controversial reputation among the armed forces and had been derided by the mid-level officers as "Mubarak's poodle" for his fawning over the now-ousted president, according to U.S. diplomatic cables sent from the Cairo embassy in 2008 and published by WikiLeaks.

"The question is, first, what is this? How are they ruling country and for how long and who else are they going to bring in? Is he first among equal or is he running the show?" Brown said about Tantawi and the takeover.

"My suspicion is that this is a collective leadership" of high commanders, he added.

The Egyptian military has never taken such a direct, dramatic intervention in the government since the 1952 Revolution, analysts said. Among the more significant actions the military has taken was responding to the 1977 bread riots and quelling riots in 1986 by conscript police of the Central Security Force, analysts said.

"I'm not sure if we should focus on whether or not it's a military coup that has taken place," Gelvin said. "This doesn't mean that they can act with impunity."

Playing a nakedly central role in Egypt has always been anathema to the military, which is now faced with the task of what to do next with a nation of 80 million people. A high-ranking Egyptian military official said that discussions were under way in the Supreme Council about dismissing Mubarak's government and parliament and the timing for elections.

"We are now in an extra-constitutional situation. This is not unfolding according to the constitution," Dunne said.

"It's really unclear whether they will drop the constitution or if they plan to amend the constitution," Dunne added. "Once you dismiss the parliament, you are moving into a situation that is not going to unfold according to the constitution. I don't know exactly what the path ahead is."

The opposition and protesters may not necessarily object to extra-constitutional changes.

"None of this is clear. Nobody is weeping over the constitution ... because the constitution was such a disaster in terms of it being authoritarian," Brown said. "So everything was broken in this constitution from their perspective."

Assuming control of the country carries uncomfortable risks and accountability for the armed forces.

"They don't like to be in that position at all," Dunne said, "but clearly it became necessary to restore stability to the country. I don't think they are eager to have control."

The military is now being watched closely by the international community for how it runs the most populous country in the Arab world.

"The real big question to watch for is, what is it that they can concretely do to indicate that they share power?" Brown said. "Are they going to appoint a civilian cabinet and are they going to reach to the opposition to give them some role and power in the transitional process?

"If they don't, that may be a sign that this transition is in for a rocky start," Brown added.

The $1.5 billion in annual U.S. aid to the Egyptian military should serve as something of a check on the armed forces during the transition.

"This is probably the source of leverage for the United States because the (Egyptian) military doesn't want to see that cut off," Gelvin said. "But as ambivalent as the Obama administration has been, relations between the United States and Egypt would get a lot worse if there was a crackdown or coup ... in which there was a suspension of elections."

"We're still looking forward to probably a September election" for president and parliament, as previously scheduled, Gelvin added.

By Michael Martinez, CNN